Korea market sentiment tracker
K-Expectation Index 2.0
How much expectation is built into Korean stocks right now, scored from 0 to 100 using ten market-wide inputs and graded 1 to 10 against KOSPI history since 2006. A low grade has meant fear and cheap prices; a high grade, crowded optimism.
As of Oct 23, 2026 close · KOSPI 5,550.30 (+0.30%)
On past Grade 9 days, the KOSPI averaged 0.0% over the next six months, and 47% of those days were up. Buying on any day since 2006 averaged +4.1% (58% up).
The KOSPI and the index
The upper panel is the KOSPI; the lower panel is the index, with its five zones shaded. Bottoms in the KOSPI have come with the index in the blue zones, while the most crowded stretches sat in the red ones.
How today’s reading is built
Each input is ranked against its own past three years (756 trading days) and turned into a 0–100 expectation score, reversed where a lower value has historically meant more optimism. The ten scores are averaged into a base score. The more the five domains disagree, the stronger the signal; when they all say the same thing, the base score is pulled back toward 50.
Today: 50 + (70.6 − 50) × 13.8 ÷ 21.0 = 63.5 → Grade 9
The ten inputs over the past three years
The window each input is ranked in. The dot is the latest value; the figures on the right are the three-year high and low.
KOSPI P/B1.38x
KOSPI price-to-book ratio · Price domain
3-year percentile 73 → expectation score 73.2 (a higher value has meant more expectation)
Deposits / market cap1.77%
Investor deposits ÷ KOSPI + KOSDAQ market cap · Cash domain
3-year percentile 9 → expectation score 91.0 (reversed: a lower value has meant more expectation)
Deposit growth, 60 days−16.0%
Change in investor deposits over 60 trading days · Cash domain
3-year percentile 6 → expectation score 94.3 (reversed: a lower value has meant more expectation)
Margin loans / deposits34.2%
Margin loans ÷ investor deposits · Debt domain
3-year percentile 70 → expectation score 70.2 (a higher value has meant more expectation)
Unpaid purchases / deposits1.31%
5-day average unpaid purchases ÷ investor deposits · Debt domain
3-year percentile 37 → expectation score 63.4 (reversed: a lower value has meant more expectation)
Margin loan growth, 60 days−7.1%
Change in margin loans over 60 trading days · Debt domain
3-year percentile 27 → expectation score 73.4 (reversed: a lower value has meant more expectation)
Turnover31.7%
20-day average trading value ÷ investor deposits · Heat domain
3-year percentile 32 → expectation score 32.1 (a higher value has meant more expectation)
Trading value surge0.65x
20-day ÷ 120-day average trading value · Heat domain
3-year percentile 2 → expectation score 97.8 (reversed: a lower value has meant more expectation)
US VIX19.45
S&P 500 implied volatility · Fear domain
3-year percentile 81 → expectation score 19.4 (reversed: a lower value has meant more expectation)
USD/KRW1,326.0
Won per US dollar · Fear domain
3-year percentile 9 → expectation score 91.3 (reversed: a lower value has meant more expectation)
What each grade has meant
Every trading day from January 2006 to October 2026 sorted into ten equal groups by the index, with the average KOSPI return six months after buying on those days and the share of days that ended higher.
About the index
- Inputs. Ten market-wide figures in five domains: price (KOSPI P/B), cash (investor deposits), debt (margin loans and unpaid purchases), heat (trading value) and fear (US VIX and the won-dollar rate). They were chosen from 21 candidates because each worked in the same direction in both 2006–2014 and 2016–2026.
- Fixed formula. The inputs, directions, the 21.0 spread reference and the grade cut-offs were set once and are not refitted when new data arrive. Readings use final data, so a day’s value can differ slightly from the figure quoted in a note written that evening, before trading value and overseas prices were final.
- Data. KOSPI and KOSDAQ index data, trading value, market cap and P/B from the Korea Exchange (KRX); investor deposits, margin loans and unpaid purchases from the Korea Financial Investment Association (KOFIA), published one business day late; VIX and USD/KRW from Yahoo Finance. Calculation by the author.
- Updates. The page is refreshed when new research is published on this site, so the date above is the last trading day included.
- Full method. The 21 candidates, the overfitting test and every grade’s record are in the research note behind the index.
This index describes how Korean market conditions compare with the past. It is not a forecast or investment advice, and past returns by grade do not guarantee future results.
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